Turkey is attempting to militarily encircle Israel through its presence in Syria and through Turkish troops in Gaza, as well as through military cooperation with, among others, Saudi Arabia.
Israel is attempting to maneuver its way out of this pincer situation, among other things through military cooperation with Cyprus and Greece.
Israel and Cyprus have in recent times developed their economic and military ties, while both Cyprus and Greece are set to intensify joint military exercises with Israel.
A trilateral plan for military cooperation between Cyprus, Greece and Israel, along with two bilateral cooperation plans between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Greek Armed Forces, and between the IDF and the Cypriot National Guard, were signed in Cyprus this May.
The agreements were signed in Nicosia and announced by the IDF, receiving a positive response both in Israel and Cyprus.
As a result, Turkey is now preparing for scenarios “ranging from crisis and increased tension to direct war” due to the rapidly growing military partnership between Israel and Greece, according to an official government document dated August 10 from Turkey’s Defense Minister Yaşar Güler.
The reference to war came in response to a question about Greece’s military posture in the Aegean Sea and its growing defense relationship with Israel. War contingency planning and preparations for a potentially large-scale mobilization came at the same time as Güler acknowledged that Turkey is closely monitoring Israeli-Greek military cooperation, which affects Turkish interests in the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean.
In August, Israel carried out an airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, approximately 70 km from the Turkish border, in an effort to prevent the Turkish military from establishing a presence there.
At the same time, Turkey issued an international arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israelis. Israel’s prime minister responded by calling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an “antisemitic dictator.”
Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, described Israel in mid-September as the “biggest obstacle” to Syria’s development. His remarks during a visit to Damascus came at a time when the Israeli army was consolidating its presence on Syrian territory near the Golan Heights.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa came to power with Turkish support after previously serving, under the name Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, as a rebel leader designated as a terrorist and linked to al-Qaeda.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will not accept a Turkish military presence moving southward toward the Israeli border.
Two weeks after Israel bombed the Syrian base in an attempt to draw a red line against Turkish troops moving south, Ankara did precisely that without any military response from Israel. The Turkish army moved into Deir ez-Zor to establish a temporary bridge for civilians crossing the Euphrates River. Turkish and Syrian soldiers assembled the floating bridge, raised Turkish and Syrian flags, and tested the platform by driving Turkish armored vehicles across it.
Turkish officials viewed the absence of an Israeli response to the Turkish army’s actions as evidence that Netanyahu, through the airstrike on Abu al-Duhur, was attempting to score political points ahead of Israel’s October election.
Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), believes that Israel is under considerable pressure to exercise restraint toward Turkey.
“Washington has been very clear that it wants to prevent an Israeli-Turkish escalation in Syria,” she told Middle East Eye, pointing out that Israel is more interested in preventing the deployment of Turkish air-defense systems, radar and command-and-control units, as well as advanced weapons in Syria.
She argued that Israel’s red line is less about how far south Turkey moves and more about what Turkey brings with it. Engineers and bridges are one thing, while air-defense systems, permanent bases and strategic capabilities are another, she said.
Turkey is seeking to secure a place for Turkish troops in the peacekeeping forces in Gaza, where its Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is to represent the Turkish president on the international “Board of Peace,” which is part of the U.S. peace plan.
In mid-September, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that through the new Mecca defense pact, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are sending a signal to help the Islamic world “overcome challenges in the region.”
